Comparison of three different boxscore metrics (WP48, WS48, PRA) with the real results by using the Top 50 lineups in terms of minutes play during the 2010/11 NBA season until February 2, 2011. The Win% values were calculated by using the Pythagorean Expectation with an exponent of 16.5. The data for the lineups are from basketballvalue.com. The WP48 values are from nerdnumbers.com. WS48 values are from basketball-reference.com and the PRA values are from this blog and can be found under Player Ratings.
Wins Produced, a product of Dave Berri, is the worst boxscore metric when it comes down to predict the success of a certain lineup. The correlation coefficients for both regressions are the lowest. Win Shares is a metric developed by Justin Kubatko (basketball-reference.com). His metric is doing considerable better than Berri’s Wins Produced.
As a comparison I included PRA, a rating I developed a couple of years ago, but never published anything about it besides some descriptions in German which are already deleted from the internet.